Reddit mentions of The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic

Nice question, I only got a lengthy answer:

Skills you need

Mathematics: Obviously the problem is mathematical. The math itself is really easy but I think you need to understand some of it. There is no book that contains everything you need to know for Soccerbetting (to my knowledge). A good guide to it, including many other games than Soccerbetting is The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic. This book is a little to much but if you go through it, you should have a deeper understanding. This will cover only the math of Gambling not of the modelling itself.

Building the actual Model: This is a machine learning problem (you could use analytical math like Poisson Distribution but I don't think that will get you far). I think if you have no skills this part is the hardest, since you need a lot of intuition for math (in my opinion). I suggest you try some examples from scikit-learn in python. Unfortunately, I never read a good book about this topic.

Betting Markets: Being successful in betting takes a little more than math an programming, you have to know where to place your bets, why betting is Europe is not a good idea etc. For this I would suggest to not hang out on this subreddit, most people get a lot of stuff wrong. Here I would suggest the first two chapters of How to Find a Black Cat in a Coal Cellar.

Programming: This part is also fairly easy. I suggest you use python, it contains everything you need in handy packages that are easy to use. I would not recommend to use Excel since at some point you will outgrow it and restart from the beginning. This part takes some work but not some actual skills.

Automation: Since most of us have a steady job we don't have time to deal with this stuff everyday. My model for example runs on a raspberry Pi and sends me a mail what I should bet on. I only check the logs on the weekend. You have to write a lot of scrapers. This part took the longest. I suggest to use Linux (I guess you have to I you don't want to pay for a sever). Here I suggest Bash and or C++.

Psychology: You will fall for all fallacies in the book, so I think knowing them makes you avoid certain things, here I can suggest The Science, Psychology & Philosophy of Gambling

The most important: Endurance, Balls and Self-Honesty: It takes a lot of set-backs and tears to get this fully working. At the beginning your model won't work and simply loose. You will think that this was a stupid idea and think about giving up. The model or the scraper breaks just as you are on vacation with your girlfriend and you spend the entire day in the hotel room fixing this thing (this actually happened to me). This needs a lot of endurance. I for example had some bad bugs in my model that cost me a little money and you really start to doubt yourself, so you need the balls to pull this through. Self Honesty is important such that you don't bullshit yourself. In that sense, that you always try to tell yourself that your model is working (at the beginning it doesn't) and you need the honesty to tell yourself that it is not fine, this is not just bad luck and needs additional work. For this part, a partner can really help. Just talking about it really makes you understand more and you can bullshit yourself but hopefully not your partner.

All in all I think having a good analytical thinking in combination with some honesty and healthy self-doubt will allow you to learn everything you need.

Skills I have:

As an example I can tell you which skills I have: I got a Masters-Degree in Engineering and am currently finishing my PhD in Theoretical Physics. So modelling stuff and math is kind of my job. I had to learn to program during my studies. I didn't know anything about gambling when I started out and did not read any books. I just try to think about it a lot and derive the math myself, that helped enormously.

Edit: I think it is also important to know what you don't need: A passion for football. I don't know shit about football and never watch it (only sometimes my local team). I even think knowing about football is a disadvantage since you open up to certain fallacies like "I know better than my model".

Poker Math That Matters: Simplifying the Secrets of No-Limit Hold'em by Owen Gaines

A good, simple introduction to poker math.

The Mathematics of Poker by William Chen & Jerrod Ankenman

Very heavy on theory but it's good to start reading this early and going back to it occasionally as you absorb and start to understand more about poker.

Expert Heads Up No Limit Hold'em: Optimal And Exploitative Strategies (Volume 1) by Will Tipton

Expert Heads Up No Limit Hold'em: Strategies For Multiple Streets (Volume 2) by Will Tipton

These books specifically focuses on heads up but the conclusions are useful for any form of poker. The game theory optimal principles you'll learn from these books will improve your play drastically and you'll gain a deeper understanding of the game.

The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic, Second Edition by Richard A. Epstein

This book laid the groundwork for Mathematics of Poker and EHUNL. Interesting read. I wouldn't suggest reading this first though. Skim it as you read the others. Very heavy on theory.

The Mental Game of Poker (Volume 1) by Jared Tendler

The Mental Game of Poker (Volume 2) by Jared Tendler

If you're planning to take poker seriously you'll inevitably need these books, or mental game coaching. You can get away with not doing either but you'll just be leaving money on the table. Elements of Poker, listed in other replies, is a good read too.


You'll notice these books are either math or mental game focused. That's intentional. I would personally suggest to you that you avoid the vast majority of poker books. Many of them are just the author relating his experience in poker and what worked for him, anecdotally. If you really want to succeed in poker you need to learn the theory and be able to adjust your strategies on the fly. Those types of books won't help you in that regard whereas the theory books listed above will teach you how to reason about the game on a fundamental level.

Don't get me wrong, there are other good books out there besides the ones listed above. But without knowing what format of poker you want to focus on, the above are good places to start because they're generalized enough they'll help you in any form of poker.

Your best bet is to be careful about what you take from a poker book. Bad advice can hurt you more than no advice.

And please, do not read these two books that were listed in other replies.

Poker Tournament Formula 1 and 2 by Arnold Snyder

They are absolute trash.

EDIT: If you're really looking to improve consider picking up a subscription to a training site with videos. That will help a ton. Run It Once is pretty good from what I hear.