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http://www.amazon.com/The-Intelligent-Investor-Definitive-Investing/dp/0060555661

This was one of those books that really got me thinking - there's a few more that come to mind ... Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits.

All of these books basically center around how to decouple emotion from the act of investing; hence, why these books are still powerful decades after being first published.

Sounds like you're not going out on the streets because of this - which is great. But, it sounds like you're kicking yourself in the butt (which you really shouldn't.) I recall the dot com glory days. I was in grad school, using this brand new website called e-trade and investing in all the companies whose products I used (sandisk, etc). Just making bank (on paper), it felt great. I thought that I understood the mechanics of the market but when things began to go sideways for me - I too hodl'ed.

Out from the ashes comes the phoenix... So take this as a learnable moment. Mine cost me dearly as well (sounds like more actually - if that helps ;-) ), but from the most expensive of all teachers (experience) I did walk away with new tools. So when fresh opportunities arose, I was in a better position to analysis, understand, and control myself to take fuller advantage of these gems...

Personally I think that we are really just beginning to see the power behind bitcoin and would suggest hodling. I'm sure that many will say that's a bad idea (perhaps so.) I'd also recommend paying off everything as quickly as possible and stopping any/all future trades - at least until such time that you feel more confident and comfortable in doing so. I feel that any further trades may result in compounding these feelings of dread and you may also regret them in the (long term) future.

Putting this aside to give yourself time to recalibrate is probably best.

I like Kevin Davey's book = https://www.amazon.com/Building-Winning-Algorithmic-Trading-Systems/dp/1118778987/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Kevin+davey&qid=1558288403&s=gateway&sr=8-1

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Don't really know your level, but what I like about his book is that he is honest and shares an actual trading strategy of his. Lots of good advice in there about the process he follows.

We've all seen those backtests that promise super high compound annual growth, the trick is getting that kind of result on a market that your algo hasn't seen before. Out of sample validation is key.

My friend,

I appreciate the long writeup. I would like to point out you are empirically wrong on a few points. TA does work, I know from experience, from others, etc etc. Trendlines are deceptive yes, they look too simple to be effective. However this is their strength. People may disregard them, but strong traders know they are still valid, enforcing their effects. This was a strong, basic and fundamental but strong, reason I knew the push to 550 on btce was a pump that was due for a correction, and we hadn't broken out.

BTW, this isn't really economics... and I agree with your point on it being zero sum, but why does that matter?

On your 50% theory, here is some evidence to the contrary http://www.amazon.com/Evidence-Based-Technical-Analysis-Scientific-Statistical/dp/0470008741

Oh and if you need more proof look at my twitter, I tend to be correct perhaps 3/4 - 7/8 times (although I just jinxed myself didn't I)

)

I don't know Roger personally so I won't say if he's a good guy or not, but I will say my opinion of him is similar to yours mostly based off reading "Digital Gold" which is a great book and covers a little bit of what Roger did for the space (which was a lot imo). I've since bought a hard copy that I can hand out to friends but you can get a free digital copy via Kindle if you have an amazon Prime account... great read.

Relevant xkcd. It's also aged pretty well, now that 5 years passed we can indeed tell what animal is in the picture.

Since you asked let me run down what you'd need to do:

1. Know a programming language so you can make a computer do this for you (good job so far).
   
2. Setup a scrapping program to request all pages on reddit and search through the soup of text to basically extract authors, text and time when they posted (a few days work and you're set).
   
3. Check when they make a price prediction and store it so you can setup a bot that keeps track of these and tells everyone else (second part is also a few days work).
   
   But oh boy that first part of nr 3 is hard. Let me break that down more:
   
   
4. Take a machine learning course or spend a couple of months looking stuff up so you have some idea what you need to do.
   
5. Install other python libraries for numerical computation and machine learning.
   
6. Get a hold of some ingredients to speed up text processing.
   
7. Gather 1000 - 10000 text samples from random redditors posting here and manually label them as "prediction" or "not-prediction", then train your model so you can identify newly posted predictions automatically
   ... That'll take a while, you can optionally hire a bunch of people on the internet to do it for you, but you'll be paying them pennies and should probably expect proportional quality
   ... Make sure to also include as many examples of "not-prediction" that mention past prices as "prediction" mentioning future prices, otherwise you model will just learn to look for any random numbers in a post.
   
   
8. From the posts that are predictions, write another script to identify the actual predicted price bit. A prediction post might have quite a few numbers mentioned in it, including numbers for other crypto currencies, or past prices. You should spend quite a bit of time making sure you're getting the right number out of a post. This bit is actually harder than writing the scraper in the first place; you could sell this data to hedge funds for a couple of millions to fund the whole project.
   
9. Follow up on your creation to make sure it has the right accuracy and precision; what you thought those 2 words meant the same thing? Better read a stats book while you're at it.
   
10. ...
    
11. Profit?
    

Chin Up /u/Bit_By_Bit

• Your meticulous analysis and smart comments were appreciated by most regular readers of this thread. Please keep them up when you feel ready to come back to it.
  
  
• I am confident your peer group that is now mocking you will recognize your wisdom in a matter of months. You can start mocking them for believing in fiat money when we go through another round of major stock (and possibly bond) market crashes by mid-October (and ultimately a USD$ currency crisis within two years)
  
  
• My condolences to your family. I have found Socrates' philosophical defense of the immortality of the soul to be very comforting reading when I have lost loved ones. Free full text here
  
  
• I went back to your last mining analysis and gave it one more upvote to bring it's score up to 0. I'd encourage others to do the same.
  
  
• "Rule #1: Be Excellent to Each Other"
  

The factors involved are very complicated, and I don't want to attempt to make concrete predictions other than to draw attention to the very subtle, but very powerful forces in play here.

We're in the midst of a currency war -- and Wikipedia will do a better job than I about explaining the basics, but essentially the Fed is actively and aggressively trying to devalue the dollar.

For a much more detailed analysis of the issues, and a great historical lesson in past currency wars, I can't recommend James Rickards book enough. It was really eye-opening.

Wow some people here taking profits with an all time high breakout after nice bullish consolidation + Segwit.

Immediately go to Amazon and buy this book or you won't be a millionaire on this crypto bull market.

https://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Commentary-Livermore/dp/0470481595/ref=sr_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1501913482&sr=1-3&keywords=Reminiscences+of+a+Stock+Operator

Yes, buy the hard cover cheapo's.

Why hello csasker. Hope you're doing well.

I'm enjoying the book you suggested. Happy easter :).

I think the conversation is much bigger than I have time to go into, but I think the CC market is where the beer market was in the beginning of the 20th century. We're about to discover a beer that all of us are satisfied by that is cheap to make at scale. An oligopoly will continue until there are clear and practical advantages to one product over another in the marketplace.

See https://www.amazon.com/U-S-Brewing-Industry-Economic-Analysis/dp/0262201518

good i could help!

Yes this is one of my favorites https://www.amazon.com/Trading-Zone-Confidence-Discipline-Attitude/dp/0735201447 , it helps you a lot with beliefs about a market and why you should not care at all but just accept the movements

Counterpoint: https://www.amazon.com/Dark-Pools-Machine-Traders-Rigging-ebook/dp/B006OFHLG6/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=Dark+Pools&qid=1557524597&s=digital-text&sr=1-1

A much more well researched version of Flash Boys.

And my own thoughts on that book after reading it (it's one of my favorite books, better than Flash Boys, which I liked): https://twomorepages.com/2016/08/26/dark-pools-twomorepages-book-review/

Please do not pay for anything. All public information is available to you to trade successfully. Before going through any course online, I recommend this book.

https://www.amazon.com/Reminiscences-Stock-Operator-Commentary-Livermore/dp/0470481595

I also wrote a few bitcoin articles on trading on my blog.

> I started trading after weeks of reading documentation/watching videos about the basics of any FOREX market, technical analysis and fundamental analysis etc.

After you've been trading longer you will realize that 99% of all that stuff you've read is wrong and written by people that don't trade for a living. When you can sort the 1% that's real out of the other 99% written by "professionals" you can consider yourself at least a novice trader.

I started trading the dot com bubble in the late 90's and did quite well for about 3 years. Then a bear market arrived and I realized two things:

1. I'm really NOT a genius.
   
2. This time it's NOT different.
   
   Edit: If you haven't read it yet, you should read Reminiscences of a Stock Operator. It's useful and very entertaining as well. It is just as relevant today as when it was first published in 1923!

Longer, but Reminiscences of a Stock Operator is great.

TA is like trying to paint of picture of how gravity works instead of defining it fundamentally with math. Get yourself a copy of The Intelligent Investor if you want to develop a proven investing framework.

Read it, don't be lazy, there is also a free PDF download out there.

exactly right - I think rather than random walk OP could leverage the phrase " SIDEWAYS MARKET "

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/sidewaysmarket.asp

aside: there is a funny book along the same vein as A random walk down Wall street called "Where are the customers yachts?"

http://www.amazon.com/Where-Are-Customers-Yachts-Street/dp/0471770892

https://www.amazon.com/Irrational-Exuberance-Robert-J-Shiller/dp/0767923634