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>##Why Joey Votto should bat second

>April, 30, 2013

>10:39 AM ET

>By Keith Law | ESPN.com


>The Los Angeles Angels have been batting Mike Trout, their best all-around hitter, second for most of this season. The Cincinnati Reds could learn a thing or two from that.

>The idea of putting your best hitter second, rather than third, is still a novel one within baseball and has yet to gain widespread acceptance, even though the evidence in favor of such an arrangement is pretty strong. Using metrics such as batting runs, estimating the runs gained or lost through changing a lineup, shifting to an optimal lineup is only worth about 10-15 runs, or just over a win, in the course of a full season. That said, the marginal gain in getting your best hitter another handful of at-bats, including extra at-bats at the end of games, makes it worth trying to capture value that otherwise would be squandered.

>The Reds are the best example this year of a team that is giving away offense by putting their worst hitter, Zack Cozart, ahead of their best hitter, Joey Votto, an example of archaic thinking that still persists within the game because that's how we've always done it.

>Same as it ever was

>Traditionally, the No. 2 hitter is supposed to be a table-setter who can put the ball in play, drop a bunt, hit behind a runner, and so on. This is all hogwash, of course: The No. 2 hitter has the same basic job as all of the other guys in the lineup -- to get his posterior to first base any way he can.

>To put it another way, his job is to avoid making an out. As an industry, we spend too much time praising players for doing "little things" -- every round of applause a player gets for grounding out and getting a guy from second to third makes me die a little inside -- and that glorification has led to this piffle about the two-hole hitter being a certain type of player, rather than just a really good hitter, period.

>Each lineup spot gets about 2.5 percent more appearances than the one after it over the course of a season, or roughly another plate appearance every 8-9 games. (That stat, and much of the information in this article, comes from the very useful "The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball," by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin, which has a whole chapter examining lineup construction that goes well beyond what I'm discussing here.)

>The obvious implication is that you want to load your best hitters up at the top of the lineup, and to put your worst hitters near the bottom of it. Even flipping Cozart and Votto (not that you'd hit Cozart third, but just hypothetically) would convert about 10 outs per year into times on base, assuming 150 games played for each player and using their OBPs of the past few years.

>Of course, you don't want to put your best overall hitter, someone who gets on base but also hits for power, in the leadoff spot, because his first plate appearances come with the bases empty and the remainder will come with fewer men on base because he's hitting behind the No. 8 and 9 hitters. Tango et al, showed that historically the leadoff spot has far fewer PAs with men on base (36 percent, with no other spot below 44 percent) than any other lineup position, making it an ideal spot for a high-OBP but low-power hitter.

>For the Angels, that's not Trout, who slugged .564 last season with 30 homers and belongs in a position where he can deploy that power to knock some guys in, while also getting on base for the hitters behind him. (Sadly, the Angels don't really have a high-OBP guy for the leadoff spot; Peter Bourjos' .370 mark this season is way out of line with his career OBP of .307.)

>Conventional wisdom says you put your best overall hitter third, and to this day most teams still do just that. Tango et al, point out, again with historical data, that when you consider the plate appearances each lineup spot receives, as well as the frequency with which each lineup spot gets each base-out situation*, a team's best hitter belongs in the No. 2 spot: It comes up about 2.5 percent more often over the course of a year, and generates more value with almost every way of reaching base due to who's typically on base and with how many outs. That is, a single or a double or a walk from the No. 2 hitter is worth more in run-scoring potential than the same event from a No. 3 hitter. The numbers are all very close, but the No. 2 hitter gets those extra 15 or so plate appearances a year, and the No. 3 hitter, on average, leads off the fewest number of innings, which is another reason not to put your highest OBP guy there.

>*There are 24 base-out situations: 0, 1, or 2 outs, as well as eight configurations of runners on base from bases empty to bases loaded. These are the 24 base-out scenarios found in a run expectancy table, that tells you how many runs you can expect to score given a number of outs and a configuration of men on base. It also tells you that giving up an out via a sacrifice bunt is generally stupid.

>Free runs!

>These gains are small but real, and freely available to any team. What's a little less evident immediately from these studies -- again, I refer you to "The Book" for the data itself -- is the very real, almost binary benefit a team may get once or twice a year in the ninth inning from batting, say, Joey Votto second instead of Zack Cozart.

>According to Dan Szymborski, in nine-inning games the past 10 years, the last out was made by the No. 2 batter 11.7 percent of the time, about what you'd expect given nine lineup spots with a slight skew toward spots near the top. (A straight 1-in-9 shot would be 11.1 percent.)

>In other words, in about 19 games a year, the No. 3 hitter was left standing in the on-deck circle, forever alone. With one-run games accounting for about a quarter of each team's schedule last year -- the Reds were 31-21 in such games, so nearly a third of their games were decided by a run -- that would mean on average about five games a year where the team's best hitter doesn't get a last chance to bat. It might be only one or two such games, and it could be more than five, but the point is that there is never a game where you should be comfortable losing by a run while your best hitter stands on deck watching a clearly inferior two-hole hitter make the final out.

>And a win coming from that situation isn't a hypothetical win from 10 runs produced on aggregate over a season -- it's a binary variable, a loss turned into a win, the kind that shows up in the standings and that people who work with baseball statistics are often absurdly accused of ignoring.

>If you can get one more win a year from optimizing your lineup this way, with no downside whatsoever, shouldn't you do it? And shouldn't any manager who hits a guy with a career .283 OBP second (Cozart), ahead of a guy (Votto) with a career .417 OBP (.445 this year, .474 last year), be held accountable for that decision? Put your best hitter second, your next-best hitter fourth, your high-OBP/low-power guy first, and you get, in effect, free runs, maybe just a handful over the course of a season, but maybe that one marginal at-bat in the ninth inning turns into a very real, tangible win, the kind that teams are supposed to be pursuing anyway.

>The conventional wisdom here is wrong, and all it took was a few guys to question it and look at the data to explain to us why.

Video from the article at the bottom

Edit: I made a hypothetical Giants line-up based on this evidence, Giants players' 2013 stats, and today's line-up, just for fun:

Marco Scutaro 2B

Buster Posey C

Brandon Belt 1B

Hunter Pence RF

Brandon Crawford SS

Pablo Sandoval 3B

Gregor Blanco CF

Roger Kieschnick LF (No offense to Keesh, there's just not enough big league stats on him yet to see what he's really made of at this level)

Pitcher's spot

After staring at and thinking about this lineup for a while, I actually like it a lot. Someone text Boch, stat!

Yo fellow baseball lover! Firstly, I hope you enjoy your brief stay in SF.

Secondly, I hope you realize the time and distance that SFO is from AT&T Park. As shitty as it sounds, it's likely going to be well over an hour each way, so at least 2 hours total in transit IF YOU'RE LUCKY. SFO also tends to have pretty crappy TSA lines to go through as well, but going through the International Terminal will help out a lot with that.

Thirdly, AT&T does not have a bag check area. They have a wonderful FREE Bike Check area because that is super cool to offer, but nothing for oversized bags. Fret not! SFO offers a baggage check for a fee of which I do not know.

>Baggage storage is exclusively available at the Airport Travel Agency, located on the Departures/Ticketing Level of the International Terminal, near the entrance to Gates G91-G102. The Airport Travel Agency is open daily from 6:00 a.m. to 11:00 p.m. No reservations are required for baggage storage. All baggage is x-rayed prior to storage. Rates are assessed per each 24 hour period that an article is in storage (articles in storage for less than 24 hours will be subject to the 24 hour rate), and vary according to the size of the object. Please contact the Airport Travel Agency at 650.877.0422 or CF.Airport@gmail.com for additional information.

OR!!!!! You could check in your bag for your flight super super early. But I'm guessing that you are talking about your carry-on bag rather than a checked bag. If that is the case, then I might suggest using a soft-framed pack and bringing a second frameless backpack to use to spread your load so that both will fit AT&T's parameters I, personally, use (this lovely little stow-away backpack for almost all of my secondary pack / carry-on travel needs. If all else fails, you can meet me at my work (PM me, please) which is a 10 minute walk from 16th street BART station and a very quick LYFT or Taxi ride to and from the park (less than 2 miles, or less than 3.21869 KM). I will be working from 10-6:30 pm that day, and since it is a 1pm start, that should cover the entire game. If for whatever reason you would like to come pick up after I am off of work, I can easily arrange for another one of my co-workers to watch and get your gear back to you. This would add an extra $4.04 US dollars each way if you choose Lyft Line (I highly suggest it), so at least $8.08 USD if you are using Lyft both to and from the park to my work, but the bag check would be 100% free. Plus I may throw in a free local beer just for shits n' giggles, if you're into that kind of thing.

Otherwise, I don't really know any other options. There's not really a check-in option around the area. Like, not even a hotel that you could faux-check in bags at. China Basin is a (now) friggin beautiful place with only the park, apartments, and businesses in the area, but was certainly not built up to be the SF destination zone, which is much of its' charm.

Anyway, if you have any questions or further inquiry, either PM or respond to this message, and I hope you're able to make it a to a game in the most beautiful park in the MLB (and, truly, in all of sports).

So, it's 81 degrees right now in Toronto, but, with humidex, feels like 104. Fuck, I hate this heat so much, really wish I was in San Francisco right now!

OK, I'll stop complaining about the weather and focus on the Giants. :) The guys have been absolutely rolling, let's hope they can keep this going for a little while longer!

I had a busy weekend, actually. On Saturday, I went to the Stratford Festival with my theatre Meetup group and enjoyed picnic lunch followed by terrific production of A Chorus Line. Fun day despite the hot and humid weather lol. Here's some photos:

• Me, in the gardens
  
• Festival Theatre
  
• Shakespeare statue
  
• Picnic lunch I purchased
  
• View during lunch by river
  
• Roses
  
  On Sunday, I went to my admin volunteer shift in the morning for this arts festival, and immediately had to dash to my YA Bookclub Meetup group meeting on the other side of the city lol. (If anyone enjoys YA books, I highly recommend the book we read for June book club.)
  
  Good luck to MadBum and the Giants tonight!

I'm still on a baseball high from last year. Before the 2010 season, if you would have asked me if I would take an amazing postseason run and World Series win in exchange for missing the playoffs the next year, I would have laughed in your face. Of course that's not a necessary tradeoff that teams must make in order to win a championship, but I'm still happy to be rooting for the reigning World Champions even during a mediocre season.

Plus, this season wasn't completely miserable. The Giants will likely finish the year as an average-performing team playing in a generally below-average division. There were some really enjoyable things that happened: Aubrey Huff hit three home runs in a game, Schierholtz went nuts for awhile, the Giants won the season series against the Dodgers including a 10-0 win in LA, they took a series in Philly, Lincecum and Cain will likely finish the season with sub-3 ERA's, and Ryan Vogelsong was an All Star.

I'd be worried if the team was made up of nothing but old guys or players entering free agency, but the core of the team are guys who are going to be good for a long, long time: Lincecum, Cain, Bumgarner, Pablo, Posey, Belt, Wilson, Romo.

And you could always do what I do during the evenings now.

• Went to a wedding over Memorial Day weeekend in Missoula, Montana. Absolutely fell in love with the town; farmers markets, dog parks, beer, and hiking. I know I have plenty of access to those things here in SD, but damn Missoula just does those things in an awesome way.
  
  
• Girlfriend won't let us move to Missoula, however. As it has "winter;" a concept foreign to this SoCal native.
  
  
• We may have found a roommate to move in with us! Looking for one is quite stressful; but we skyped with a young woman from Seattle who we really really liked! Now we just have to get her approved! No word yet on whether she is a Seahawks fan, which might doom this all anyway.
  
  
• I want to play softball. Do any of you have any stories for adult softball leagues? How good does one need to be? Can I, as a single player, just join a random team? How does all this work?
  
  
• Anyone have a good idea for a Father's Day present? I was considering this book, but I have always been told to never gift someone a book that you haven't personally read; but I listen to their podcast extensively, so I feel qualified to give it to my old man. Thoughts?
  
  
• uh......Fuck the Dodgers!
  
  
• Do not fuck the DH, of which I am a fan.
  
  
• However, Bum should definitely be in the HR Derby.
  
  
• I love this sub and I love you all

The Science of Hitting is a fantastic book filled with anecdotes, personal stories and great advice from one of the best hitters to ever play baseball. Even if you have zero intention of ever swinging a baseball bat you should read this because it is just damn good.


On the fiction side I just finished Castro's Curveball. Pretty entertaining. Kind of an alternative history story.


My secret Santa sent me the book 1954 which I will start today. I love Bill Madden so it should be a good read.

Cabella's gift card? Cabella's something? Relaxing outdoor chair that's meant for camping that he can sit in outside the house?

My dad loved this sort of multifunction level/ruler/pencil for home improvement stuff if you can find a version before Christmas (Home Depot?). Actually a Home Depot gift card for a small amount is convenient (stocking stuffer?)

Do they have a wine aerator? I hear it doesn't do much, but it's a neat gift/thing to have around. As far as good local wine, Viano Vineyards makes a great cabernet for $8-10 a bottle.

That's all I can think of now... Good luck! Everything is panic!

I'm asking for a fuzzy Giants throw blanket and a Giants calendar for my "big gift" from my Reno family. My sibling has it easy by getting me the most recent Simpsons dvd season release. I'd probably have to disown them if I didn't get my dvds each holiday.

My Reno family does the pick from a hat deal for one large gift and then we do smaller gift cards for the rest of the family.

Does anyone have any feedback on stadium bleacher seats? Something like these from a google search. It is for a mother whose son is playing football and baseball and she needs something comfortable for her son's many games.

Well.. The motherboard doesn't need to be great, RAM is cheap as dirt right now. Vid card is really your choice, but I think its worth going good. Get a good core i7, and this heat sink is pretty much all you need.

Band from the '60s. Leader was one Jim Morrison—genius-level IQ, kind of a Greek god incarnate, died young, pretty corpse. Oliver Stone made a movie about his (tragic) life. Music is pretty good, more or less stands the test of time. Worth checking out the greatest hits, at the least.

If you end up interested in Morrison, there's a good biography I read in the '80s: No One Here Gets Out Alive.

Edit: here's some more random details.

• Band name was inspired by Aldous Huxley's "Doors of Perception" (our senses)
  
• first hit: "Break on Through" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-r679Hhs9Zs
  
• second hit: "Light My Fire" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=deB_u-to-IE
  
• other song you may have heard: "Love Her Madly" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SLdvnQD_eio
  
• other song you may have heard: "People Are Strange" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=awi14wDTxNw

....

it's not a game.. but it's still worth a listen.

​

the Cubs' guy makes CDs

http://www.baseballvoices.com/

​

Russ and Lon are disc only

http://www.baseballvoices.com/russlon.php

​

Jon Miller's is on itunes. there are 2 tracks alone that are worth the price of admission and neither have to do with the Giants... and there's ample highlights not just for the Giants, but some of baseball's biggest moments.

​

1. Open
   
2. Intro
   
3. Jon Miller
   
4. 2014 Giants Glory
   
5. Younger Days
   
6. Oakland 1974
   
7. Texas 1978-79
   
8. Rain Delay Convention
   
9. Boston 1980-82
   
10. Voice of the Orioles
    
11. Cal Ripken, Jr. 2131
    
12. ESPN
    
13. Barry Bonds
    
14. The Vin Scully of Japan
    
15. 2010 & 2012 Giants Glory
    
16. Radio Hall of Fame
    
17. Man For All Seasons
    
18. Cooperstown
    
19. Legacy
    
20. Credits
    
    ​
    
    Jon Miller: A Broadcasting Legend
    
    https://music.apple.com/us/album/jon-miller-a-broadcasting-legend/1447980535
    
    ​
    
    also.. the Baseball Codes (audiobook) is totally worth the listen.... and it's 10 hours.. you're driving back, right?
    
    ​
    
    https://www.amazon.com/Baseball-Codes-Beanballs-Bench-Clearing-Unwritten/dp/030727862X
    
    The Baseball Codes: Beanballs, Sign Stealing, and Bench-Clearing Brawls: The Unwritten Rules of America's Pastime

edit: A single amazon search turned this up...
https://www.amazon.com/Giants-Buster-Official-Baseball-Witness/dp/B01CM6UFHM/ref=sr_1_1?s=collectibles&ie=UTF8&qid=1474990225&sr=1-1&keywords=buster+posey+signed+baseball

$150 for a signed WS baseball with the man's name on it.

if you want to really surprise your friend, they have mint cond. Buster Posey rookie year baseball cards on Amazon and those are almost certain to appreciate with time.


I will stop just short of promising you, you will not get a buster posey autograph at a game. fan fest would be really tough and a wait until next spring.


tbh, get him a signed ball or shirt on amazon. there are loads of them. you could probably get two pieces of signed memorabilia (cheap stuff like balls) fro $200. Might not be buster posey, though.


sorry if this is getting too long to make this point, but the guy knows how valuable his name is now.

"Hey Boch"

"yeah"

"Let's say there's a runner on third"

"yeah"

"And you have Buster Posey up at the plate"

"yeah"

"Would you rather have Posey try to get a hit or try to produce an out"

"well, i would rather take the hit"

"Wait, really?

"yeah. we only have twenty-seven outs in a game, so each one is precious. a hitter should ALWAYS be trying to get on base"

"Yeah, but in this situation there's a runner at third"

"and? a hitter should NEVER be trying to get himself put out"

Also, I've only seen Moneyball once and thought it was a pretty mediocre movie. They got rid of the actual baseball analysis (that definitely would have bored most people) and added a ridiculous conflict between Art Howe and Billy Beane that never existed.

Look, dude, I get it: hearing that the VAST majority of people in the field are realizing that your way of thinking is wrong is a SCARY thought; you've believed something to be true most of your life and all of a sudden other people are telling you with OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS that you are OBJECTIVELY WRONG. The good news is that it's not too late for you to open yourself up to the GOOD NEWS. Do yourself a favor: pick up this book

https://www.amazon.com/Baseball-Between-Numbers-Everything-About/dp/0465005470/ref=sr_1_4?ie=UTF8&qid=1500617402&sr=8-4&keywords=baseball+prospectus

give it an honest chance (it's well-written on top of being informative) and open yourself up to the idea that people like Andrew Friedman (who turned the Rays into a perennial cellar dweller to contenders) and Theo Epstein (literally ended the two longest droughts in MLB history) know what the fuck they're talking about.

Yeah definitely a classic. Just to clarify I'm definitely not saying that clutch is a real or important thing, as it has never been statistically proven so. However, the biggest finding in most of these studies (the one I'm thinking of is unfortunately not available online) is the correlationship between performing well in high leverage situations and patience at the plate. So to reiterate, it's not that I think Belt is clutch as much as I think that a player with Belt's approach should continue to do well in high leverage situations.

Whenever I am at the park, I bring This with me. My gf also has one, its cheap and very good. Only problem with the AtBat app is how delayed the plays are. With the radio I can hear KNBR on every play. Its great.

I bought one of these puppies when I can't stream or it's blacked out. Works like a charm, 12 bucks.

http://www.amazon.com/Sony-ICF-S10MK2-Pocket-Radio-Silver/dp/B00020S7XK/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1396643975&sr=8-1&keywords=radio

Forgot I had this, but now this is my only stream.

Edit: For anyone interested in this contingency plan, it's only 11 bucks on Amazon.

Amazon carries them -- Linked is 2010, but from there the 2012 and 2014 are easily located.

I received this book, an SF pullover windbreaker, a poster of At&t Park, and a leather Giants wallet. Soo pumped!