(Part 3) Best products from r/baseball

Okay, I'll try to make this something constructive.



First: "Replacement player is a made up term."

Sure, but that's not exactly a slight against WAR. An average player is "made up" in the sense that no such player perfectly exists, and the same goes for replacement level players. That marker is an arbitrary point, but examples of players who very much fit the idea of "replacement level" exist.

A replacement level player is usually defined as "A AAAA player available for extremely cheap who would be used to replace another player in the event of injury or some other factor - not good enough to be a regular starter at the MLB level except out of extreme circumstance". Take James Loney, who was acquired by the Mets midseason after they lost 1B Lucas Duda to injury for most of the season. Loney was had for cash from AAA El Paso, and performed at around replacement level: -0.1 rWAR and -0.2 fWAR in 100 games. He's an excellent example of a replacement player, and while he's not an exact copy - there doesn't exist one. He fits in the archetype, that's all.



Second: "bWar and fWar can fluctuate by 3+ wins (30+ runs) for the same players' seasons which is a monumental difference."

This is incredibly ignorant of how these stats actually work. fWAR and rWAR are founded upon the same principles, but use different numbers to accomplish their purposes. This isn't to say that one method is more valid than the other or that, as a result of their disagreement, neither are valid (which appears to be your implication, feel free to correct me if I'm wrong).

Here's how fWAR is calculated: WAR = (wRAA + UZR + UBR + Positional Adjustment + 20/600PA)/10

wRAA represents how many batting runs above average a player is. I highly reccomend picking up a copy of Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin's book, The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball to understand where it comes from, but if you don't have a copy at hand, I luckily have one on my desk, and here's a good passage that explains wOBA, the foundational stat behind wRAA:

"... we know the run values of each [batting] event [(this refers to a single, double, walk, etc.)]. For example, we know that the run value of the HR is 1.4 runs above average, and 1.7 runs above the run value of the out. In rate measures, like OBP, the value of the out in the numerator is zero. If we recast the run values of the most common events relative to the out (rather than relative to the result of an average plate appearance), we get the following:

HR 1.70, 3B 1.37, 2B 1.08, 1B 0.77, NIBB 0.62" - Tango, Licthman, Dolphin

Those values are eventually used to create weights for each plate outcome and used as a rate statistic, but if we don't divide those stats by PA (as we do in wOBA) and adjust for league and park offense, we get wRAA.

UZR is a more advanced statistic which Mitchel Lichtman povides for FanGraphs - the guts of it are far too complex to get into in response to a reddit post with a 33% upvote ratio at 2 in the morning, but the idea behind it is that a batted ball to a particular location will be an out x% of the time on average. If you make a play on a ball with a low out%, you receive positive credit, and if you can't make a play on a ball with a high out%, you receive negative credit. That differential is then converted into runs and factored in fWAR. UZR has some issues with it: Josh Stein addresses some of these here, but ultimately it does a fairly good job of measuring defensive value despite the general unreliability of defensive metrics.

UBR is provided by (who else) Mitchel Lichtman and it measures how frequently a player increases the run expectancy of a play while on the basepaths. If you're unfamiliar with run expectancy, here's a brief primer from an incredibly talented and handsome writer. By stealing a base, a teams' odds of scoring runs in the inning increase by a tangible amount, and a player recieves credit for that, again converted to runs.

Positional adjustments takes into account the fact that not all positions are weighted equally. A player who is slightly below average at centerfield is still more valuable than a player who plays RF at an average level, principally because of the differences incurred by playing at that position. You can view typical positional adjustments here. This allows us to compare players who play at different positions.

Finally, that 20/600PA is our representation of replacement level. Over 600 PA, we might expect a replacement level player to be worth 20 runs below average. Hence, we add 20/600PA to obtain our value of value above replacement (if we didn't include this figure, we'd be looking at runs above average).

After determining our runs above replacement value, we then divide by 10 to obtain wins above replacement. Where does 10 runs=a win come from? Pythagorean records, surprisingly! The pythagorean expectation of win% for a team is as follows:

xW% = (Run Scored)^2 / ( (Runs Scored)^2 + (Runs Allowed)^2 )

If we have a team that allows 750 runs and scores 750 runs (about the league average for 2017), their xW% would be .500, and they'd win 81 games and lose 81 games. But let's say we want to improve the team. How many more runs would we need to add to get our team to 82-80? Turns out, to add an additional win to the team in terms of xW%, we need 10 more runs.

760^2 / (760^2 + 750^2) = .506 xW%

.506 xW% 162 = 82.073 Wins

How does this work for pitchers? FanGraphs uses a variant of FIP, called fielding independent pitching. While the notion behind FIP is generally flawed - the stat assumes that pitchers do not exert any control over contact, which is only about 50% true - but weighs the pitching outcomes of Ks, BBs, HBPs and HRs based on how they positively or negatively affect the game. In calculating WAR, FanGraphs also includings infield-pop-ups induced by pitchers as well. FanGraphs then adjusts the FIP figure based on league and park factors, converts that figure to dynamic runs per game using a bunch of math stuffs that it's way too late for but I will link to anyways.

So why the difference between rWAR and fWAR? rWAR is calculated different than fWAR!

rWAR for position players has six components: Batting Runs, Baserunning Runs, Runs added or lost due to Grounding into Double Plays in DP situations, Fielding Runs, Positional Adjustment Runs, and Replacement level Runs (based on playing time). You can read an in-depth description on the calculation of rWAR here, but in a nutshell, rWAR uses about the same method as FanGraphs in determining batting runs, but uses different evaluation systems for the rest of their metrics, including using Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) as opposed to UZR.

Notice that UBR and UZR are not present! Baseball Reference does not use these values in determining rWAR, and hence, their values are different than FanGraph's.

What about pitching rWAR? rWAR deals more with runs allowed (earned and unearned) as opposed to fielding-indepent outcomes, but otherwise operates on similar principles in that it adjusts for leverage, park factors, and league factors. Again - same idea, different measurement methods.

So why can players run such large differences between rWAR and fWAR? Simply put, part of fWAR likes them where part of rWAR doesn't like them, and vice versa. Let's say that a pitcher put up excellent strikeout and walk numbers, but played in front of a terrible defense. fWAR would reward the pitcher, but rWAR would punish the pitcher by virtue of them having given up more runs. But let's say that we have a pitch-to-contact pitcher like Kyle Hendricks, who induces plenty of groundballs and relies upon his defense for outs as opposed to strikeouts. rWAR would now reward that pitcher while fWAR punishes them.

The philosophies behind these two metrics have their own distinct differences, and like any sabermetric measure, must be measured in context. Understanding the context and nuances of the metrics allows you to use them as an effective tool, and understand why the differences are not in themselves an indictment of the metrics.



Third: "I cringe when Brian Kenny regurgitates players WARs on MLB now like he knows what he's talking about."

Brian Kenny is a professional broadcaster who has years of experience covering baseball and the way that it's evaluated. He's actually written an excellent book, which I'll suggest here as well



Fourth: "It undermines actual sabermetrics. Real sabermetrics and analytics are "pitchers whiff rate on his slider", "K-BB% vs LHB"."

What is "real sabermetrics" then? Let's ask Bill James, generally considered the grandfather of this school of thought.

"…what I do does not have a name and cannot be explained in a sentence or two. Well, now I have given it a name: Sabermetrics … [and] Sabermetrics is the mathematical and statistical analysis of baseball records." - James, The 1980 Baseball Abstract

James has refined and restated his definition multiple times across the years, but its most recent definition can be found in a recent Q&A from 2014:

"Sabermetrics is NOT about who is better than who or where players should be rated; not at all. It is about Why Teams Win, and How the Game Changes, and Why the Game Changes, and Why the Game Works." - James, Hey Bill

cont.

All due respect to Curt Flood, who's been mentioned here and who I believe to be one of the most inspirational people to ever exist in the sport, but if one man is responsible for the end of the reserve clause it was Marvin Miller.

If you're looking for a first person source, he wrote a book on this called A Whole Different Ballgame: The Inside Story of the Baseball Revolution.

It's an interesting and very entertaining read (though he does tend to repeat a few stories throughout the book). I'd imagine that you can find it in your local library. I would recommend it not just to you, but to anyone who has an interest in baseball history, particularly in the area of labor relations and free agency.

Marvin Miller is probably in the top 5 in terms of people who've had an effect on the game of baseball, and it's a travesty that he's been barred from the Hall of Fame by those who are still bitter about free agency.

Three Nights in August by Buzz Bissinger -- A through-the-eyes-of-Tony-La-Russa recounting of a pivotal three game series between the Cardinals and Cubs in August 2003.

The Last Boy by Jane Leavy -- Not only an exceptional (!) biography of Mickey Mantle, but also a wonderful look into what life was like at the time as both a fan and as a professional baseball player. Notable stories about the Yankees and its many players of that era, Willie Mays, Duke Snyder.

The Bullpen Gospels by Dirk Hayhurst -- A hilariously honest and at-times brutal telling of what life is like as a minor league, "non-prospect" pitcher.


Up, Up, and Away by Jonah Keri -- Because the Expos are amazing, and I love and miss them.

I think they could -- I've dreamed about it. Here's what you do:

You build a small stadium on a river -- you build it outside of town maybe 20 minutes. Me, I'm thinkin Lowell, but I'm open to suggestions. 35,000 seats, but comfortable seats -- PNC Park on the Merrimac.

The team is easy: you murder the Marlins and move them up there. You leave them in the NL, but you rechristen them the Boston Americans, in honor of the team that won the first world series. I know this is a conflict with the fact that they're in the NL, but it's a play on Boston's history in terms of patriotism, etc.

And then you position them as the workingman's alternative to the Red Sox. Don't want to drive an hour from Worcester to sit next to some tech millionaire in her pink B hat? Come on up to America's Park and root for Your Team. Do they have the fancy trappings? Do they have the 100 year history? Nope. All they have is family prices, plentiful parking, a youthful team, and all the things regular people want in a day out at the park. Let the Harvard grads have Fenway: this is the team of UMass and UNH and UConn.

And it sounds STUPID until you read Can't Anybody Here Play this Game? and realize that all the objections you have to the Americans are precisely the same ones people had to the Mets -- people are too loyal to the Yankees, the new team's gaudy and lacks any tradition, no one wants to go to Queens to watch baseball.

I'm telling you, man. My first billion dollars, that's what I'm doing with it.

edit: grammar. some of it, anyway.

If you're into early baseball history, I highly recommend The Glory of Their Times .

​

For a specific year, Fifty-Nine in '84 is really entertaining and gives you a good perspective of 1880s baseball.

Search through the sub for old Book recommendations for more info.

Ones that immediately come to mind:

• Moneyball - Technically about the 2002 Oakland Athletics but gets into more than that.
  
• Best Team Money Can Buy - About the 2014~ Dodgers.
  
• Tony la Russa's book
  
• Lindbergh and Miller's book
  
  If you look through older posts there are dozens of other recs.
  
  Final personal one isn't about MLB, but about softball in New York. Link Here
  
  Old professor in college wrote it, thought it was pretty unique.

Thanks for sharing. If you or anyone else wants to read more about Tommy John surgery and the recovery process I highly recommend The Arm by Jeff Passan. Among other things, it follows Todd Coffey and Daniel Hudson through their TJ recoveries.

The Arm: Inside the Billion-Dollar Mystery of the Most Valuable Commodity in Sports https://www.amazon.com/dp/B011ISW5C8/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_apa_NDhNBbSETCPFX

Baseball's Big Train

The story of Walter Johnson, written by his grandson. It's a really great look at baseball in the early 1900's as well as the story of one of the greatest pitchers of all time.

Good luck with everything! My uncle is a psychiatrist and a baseball fan and he often has people read the book The Mental Game of Baseball. I read 2 pages from it everyday now. Really helps me keep perspective and everything. http://www.amazon.com/The-Mental-Game-Baseball-Performance/dp/1888698543

For anyone who hasn't read the new book by Ben Lindbergh and Sam Miller, I HIGHLY recommend doing so - it's a very interesting and fun read.

https://www.amazon.com/Only-Rule-Has-Work-Experiment-ebook/dp/B016IBVN6Y?ie=UTF8&btkr=1&ref_=dp-kindle-redirect

You are correct -- A Lefty's Legacy is a great biography, and it covered this issue extensively. Apparently Koufax's arm is curved slightly because of his pitching motion. He retired early because he was worried about his health.

EDIT - I just want to highly recommend A Lefty's Legacy by Jane Leavy. One interesting tidbit is that Koufax initially declined to help Leavy with a biography, so the project died. Several months (years?) later, Leavy was stranded at an airport. The only person she knew in that city was Koufax because of their prior brief conversation. She called and asked him for a ride from the airport, and he did it. Apparently they got along well, and he ended up helping with the biography.

This is it on Amazon great collection, it helps make the off season go by faster every year :)

Fiction: The Universal Baseball Association, J. Henry Waugh, Prop. by Robert Coover.

Non-Fiction: Moneyball, definitely, but that's too obvious. The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball by Tom Tango, et al., and Eight Men Out by Eliot Asinof are also excellent choices.

His grandson wrote an excellent book about Walter and there’s a lot of people in the DC area who know who he was. The biggest sports bar near Nats Park is called Walter’s and is full of his pictures etc. There is also a high school named for him, several little league fields, etc. Walter’s grandson has thrown out the first pitch at Nats Park before.

(aside: there is an elderly man called Lorenzo Crowe who is a former Negro League player who is at Nationals Park for every game. The team gave him season tickets for life in the Diamond Club where the waiters always have a table reserved for him and a meal waiting for him, he gets invited to all the season ticket holder events, he is so loved by the team and the club staff. It’s really great to see.)

Now that we have a team again, more people are learning who he was. Having a generation grow up with no baseball in the city makes for a big gap in our history.

It's definitely old-fashioned (kinda looks like antique gloves) but I think it's like a training glove.

Here's what looks to be a newer version.

Looks like it would be used to force infielders to receive the ball softly and work on transfers.

The one I recommend to everyone is The Baseball Fan's Companion, it is unfortunately out of print but easy to find used. I'd also recommend:

The Glory of their Times by Lawrence Ritter

Veeck as in Wreck by Bill Veeck

Stolen Season by David Lamb

Can't Anybody Here Play this Game by Jimmy Breslin

The Wrong Stuff and Have Glove Will Travel by Bill Lee

You Gotta Have Wa by Robert Whiting

Ideal for fans of the Cleveland Indians: The Curse of Rocky Colavito by Terry Pluto.

Because I'm a huge Strat-O-Matic baseball fan, I enjoyed The Universal Baseball Association, Inc. by Robert Coover, where protagonist Henry Waugh creates his own dice baseball league -- not without its dark passages, though.

If I can recommend a good baseball read, it would be The Glory of their Times. It got me through blizzard season last year.

that's like the whole point of astroball (discussed in depth in Astroball by Ben Reiter) that analytics and advanced metrics can give us a ton of information to use but the idea of Gut Feel and emotion really can and should play a huge part in the decision making process

I got this book which I've only flipped through so far but it looks awesome!

Ha, nice. You could just get it on Amazon. Since I'm not yet at the point of earning royalties from it, all sales help and add up.

This book

is a great read if you're interested.

Jeff Passan's The Arm was a really interesting read on this subject as well. The Kindle version has been on sale for $1.99 at various points since its release. I'd recommend it.

Have you read crazy 08 by any chance?

Great baseball book.

Thanks for the book rec :)

Don't know if you read this one but I thoroughly enjoyed it.

There is a really nice piece about him in the book "Ahead of the Curve: Inside the Baseball Revolution" by Brian Kenny.

Highly recommend it

It's by a graphic designer named Craig Robinson, who also made a fantastic book book containing many of those infographics, as well as some additional ones.

'The glory of their times.' Unbelievable oral history of some late 19th century and early 20th century players.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Glory-Their-Times-Baseball/dp/0688112730

The Code is a great read. Offers insight from former players.

The Code: Baseball's Unwritten Rules and Its Ignore-at-Your-Own-Risk Code of Conduct

Has interviews and insights from current and former players, managers, and umpires. A great read and makes you look at parts of the game from a different perspective.

Have not read it, but I hear lots of good things about Astroball

The Only Rule Is That It Has to Work: Our Wild Experiment Building a New Kind of Baseball Team.

It is about a couple of Baseball stat-head type guys who get control of an independent minor league team in California and run it in a very different way. It is not just about the saber-metric stuff though, you get to see a different side of baseball. Independent league baseball is crazy and interesting, and there are a lot of heart-warming and heart-breaking stories in this book.

Here are five:

Fifty-nine in '84: Old Hoss Radbourn, Barehanded Baseball, and the Greatest Season a Pitcher Ever Had

The Summer of Beer and Whiskey: How Brewers, Barkeeps, Rowdies, Immigrants, and a Wild Pennant Fight Made Baseball America's Game

Dock Ellis in the Country of Baseball

Baseball and Other Matters in 1941

Up, Up, and Away: The Kid, the Hawk, Rock, Vladi, Pedro, le Grand Orange, Youppi!, the Crazy Business of Baseball, and the Ill-fated but Unforgettable Montreal Expos

Probably Ahead of the Curve.

Robert Coover, The Universal Baseball Association, Inc., J. Henry Waugh, Prop.