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Another awesome day yesterday, 5-2 +2.58u. This week I've gone 18-10-2 +7.81. I'm officially positive in June (by +0.13u).

Anyway I lost power last night and still don't have it back so I came to work 2 hours early to work on this -____-

TDiBH: At the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Blue Jay Frank Thomas strokes his record-setting 244th round-tripper as a designated hitter in a 4-2 loss to Washington. The third-inning solo shot off Micah Bowie moves the 39 year-old veteran past Edgar Martinez for the most home runs hit by a DH in major league history.

Honestly I really chose that one because "The Big Hurt" was on MLB Central yesterday in a spot where he promoted his new cook book, "The Big Hurt's Guide to BBQ and Grilling", which I'll probably inevitably buy sometime in the near future.

Hey, who wants to see him hit some dingers?

Cubs -1 -186 2u: I like Liriano but he's had some awful control problems this year, amassing a 5.45 BB/9, which is significantly higher than he's had at any point in his career. There are a couple other concerning things with his game, all of which I believe I can explain. The stats that are largely different than at any other point in his career are his 22% HR/FB which is twice as high as his career average, his 36.7% hard contact rate which is 8% higher than his career average and his 10.7% Swinging Strike rate, which is 3% less than his career rate. Beyond that he's throwing 10% more fastballs than at any point in his career. So based on all that I'd say he doesn't trust the command of his offspeed stuff, but coincidentally his offspeed stuff (particularly his slider and changeup) is why he was so effective throughout his career. So now he's trying to throw pitches he can command in the zone a bit better but in effect is getting fucking drilled. His two seam fastball "f/x pitch value" is -7.0 so far this year (remember, negative is bad), which is over twice as bad as it was last year.

So what does that mean for the Cubs? The Cubs rank 5th in wRC+ against LHP and are 2nd to only the Nationals in BB/K (0.52) while walking 10.7% of the time. That's really good. Their offense is slumping a little bit over the last two weeks (15th in wRC+ over that time period) but still aren't slumping as badly as the Pirates who have an abysmal 88 wRC+ in the past 14 days. Oh, and Arrieta is on the bump for the Cubs today and that never helps opposing teams. W

In short, I'm pretty fucking confident the Cubs will win this game, it's just a matter of finding the best value line I can find, and I think I'll find that with the -1 or -1.5 lines.

Dbags ML -158 1u: Robbie Ray looked a lot better in his last start, but that's not why I'm taking this bet. His Achilles Heel this season has been command, particularly his high walk rate and 16.9% HR/FB rate. If he brought his HR/FB down closer to league average, he'd have around a 3.76 FIP. Anyway none of that really matters because the Phillies are garbage against lefties; they strike out a bunch, they don't walk much and they have an awful .100 ISO against them. In other words? Don't worry about Ray's HR/FB rate, it won't matter here. Don't worry about them walking a bunch, their BB/K rate is terrible. Opposing Ray is Adam "Everyman" Morgan, who if you look up on Google Images looks so average, you can't even tell him apart from every other Adam Morgan that's on this planet. I know I joke on him a lot, and while I don't think he's 6.33 ERA bad, he's certainly not good and I don't expect him to rebound today against a Dbags team which owns the 4th best wRC+ against southpaw pitching and is desperately trying to break out of a slump.

Nationals ML -165 3u: Let's talk about Christian Friedrich for a minute. Some have bought in on him already while I have no, for the sole reason that the competition he's faced this year has not been great and if you look at the offensive production in those starts compared to the number of earned runs he gave up, something doesn't add up. Take his first start against the Brewers. He only gave up 1 ER but gave up 4 hits and walked 6 batters. Overall? Not great, probably more luck than anything. Or in a start against Seattle where he scattered 9 hits and 4 walks over 5 innings, yet somehow managed to hold the damage to 3 ER. He's never faced as potent as an offense against LHP as the Nats, so I think this game will be a rude awakening for him. The Nats own a 115 wRC+ against LHP, have the best BB/K ratio in the league and have a .199 ISO as well. Joe Ross has been pretty solid this year and I mean the Padres offense is really nothing to write home about, but this bet has nothing to do with Ross. I'm betting on the Nats bats absolutely tearing down Friedrich.

Angels ML -140 3u: After Shoemaker's awful start to the season he's rebounded nicely and his peripherals are pretty exciting. He owns a 9.26 K/9 while keeping his walks below 2 per 9, he's keeping the ball in the yard while being hit hard as his .325 BABIP implies. He owns a 14.2% Swinging Strike rate and that's like Kershaw level good. Very impressive. Kendall Graveman is like a right-handed Adam Morgan to me, he's super mediocre/teetering on bad. He owns an almost 20% HR/FB rate, walks too many batters and has a terrible 5.31 FIP this season. Angels own a 109 wRC+ over the last month while the A's are in a perpetual offensive slump. Graveman's gonna be put in the grave, man.

Astros -1.5 -120 1u: Yeah the odds are steep but hear me out. McCullers has given up some runs this season but he still owns a 2.96 FIP and crazy .384 BABIP. The Reds offense has come back to earth some and have struck out 26% of the time over the last two weeks. McCullers is striking out 11.26 batters per 9 and is keeping the ball on the ground when it gets hit. His SwStr% is up from where it was last year and ultimately I think he will break through sooner rather than later. John Lamb is nothing special and is facing an Astros offense that's on the rise and is seemingly playing better. Astros also own the best bullpen FIP in baseball, so if McCullers can go a solid 6 with some run support, I don't see the Reds doing much in the later innings.

Tigers ML -130 2u Tigers -1.5 +130 1u: JD Martinez going down is a huge loss for the Tigs (remember when Cabrera went down this time last year?), but ultimately this is a disaster pitching matchup for KC. Fulmer hasn't given up an earned run in his last 27.1 innings (that's four starts folks) against some pretty stout competition. He's generating a ton of swings outside the strike zone and it's kind of fucking batters up. His opponent, Yordano "Fart Bucket Fuckboy" Ventura has been pretty awful for all the mouth running he's done this season. He's walking 4.44 per 9 without striking out a ton of guys, he owns a 1.23 HR/9, is generating far less swings and misses than at any point in his career and owns a 5.04 FIP. Also, he's a dick and a personality trash can. The Tigers offense owns a league-leading 132 wRC+ over the last two weeks, and even without JD Martinez I think they'll generate enough offense to put this sack of shit in his place.

Orioles ML +135 1u: This is a flyer. Mike Wright has been hit hard and maybe could be better. And as good as Sanchez has been, he still owns a 17% HR/FB rate. He's a groundball pitcher but the Orioles have one of the lowest groundball %s in the league. Between that, the fact that Bautista is more than likely out today and a Blue Jays bullpen that is hot garbage (especially against power lefties like say...Chris Davis), hell why not?

I read an awesome book last year. "how to beat the pro football pointspread - second edition" by Bobby Smith

https://www.amazon.com/How-Beat-Football-Pointspread-Comprehensive/dp/1632203545

I consider myself a frequent/knowledgeable bettor. But I'm also younger and have much to learn. This really opened my eyes to different ways of approaching the games. How to read between the lines. A big theme in the book is helping you learn how to see through the noise that comes from analysts/networks that know nothing about what it means to be on the smart side of a bet.

I enjoyed it so much. It would show past examples of a game scenario, and what factors mattered in selecting a side. I constantly found myself saying AHA! It's not a long book at all. You can definitely crank it out in a day or two.

Good luck!

Pokerjoe (the author of the FAQ in the r/sportsbook sidebar) wrote a good, cheap ebook on the subject that will save you a lot of headache. Recommended if you've passed Sports Betting 101A but aren't ready for 201 or an internship.

If you're new to gambling math, Don Peszynski's Lose More, Win Less is a great place to start (and is very well done, despite the hokey title).

For stuff on how to actually build a model, check this old post of mine.

Trading Bases is a great book, however I wish he expanded more on his model.

I am currently reading a old copy of Betting Baseball by Michael Murray, http://www.amazon.com/Betting-Baseball-Michael-Murray/dp/0977878708. I wish I could find out more info on this guy, but it seems pretty scarce. He brings up an Offensive Rating formula, I don't have the book with me right now, but its something like X = AB OB% SLG * .975. It basically gives you how many runs that player is worth. So far its a great book.

honestly, /u/CheeseAddiction, /u/j3rown, and myself typically post every day and try to be successful. We do pretty good.

Anyways, this weekend before opening day, I think i'll message them and try to get a season primer ready for all of you looking to gamble and explain a lot of the stuff we're doing.

Edit: Also, I would suggest The Book as reading material. It's very heavy maybe for someone who doesn't know baseball that well but I think it's the best source for analytics and thinking in an analytical way about sports.

i have my ears open. i played fifa for a few years but this is my first year wagering. i've read Sharp Sports Betting and it's really useful.

i'm really interested in hearing any tip or story of yours? do you play football? what are your other hobbies?

Thank you to the participants of r/sportsbook for all your excellent questions in my AMA. I'm delighted that ["The Smart Money"] (https://www.amazon.com/Smart-Money-Bettors-Bookies-Millions-ebook/dp/B000MGAU6G) retains some relevance in this "new" era of sports betting. I wrote it with you folks in mind. Let's do it again sometime soon!

Thanks. I'm also in OPs boat, yet I understood almost nothing of what you said. Don't get me wrong, I know how to play baseball (played in elementary/middle school), so I know the rules, but that's about it.

Anyways, I was thinking of getting this book to help get me up to speed with strategies the teams use etc. etc. Do you think this would be helpful first step for a would be MLB bettor or will it not make much of a difference in terms of what I'd need to knowk for betting?

Can You Win?: The Real Odds for Casino Gambling, Sports Betting, and Lotteries https://www.amazon.com/dp/0716721554/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_mHPnDbYXREPH5

The Theory of Gambling and Statistical Logic https://www.amazon.com/dp/032328275X/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_i_cJPnDbWRATQ83

OP, there’s a good amount out there and you can go deep down the rabbit hole quickly. I recommend those two books as good starters. The first is friendlier.

Not sure about Bittrex. But the difference between Breadwallet and Coinbase is the ownership of the keys that control the Bitcoin. With Breadwallet you have control over the keys (direct ownership of the BTC). With Coinbase they hold the keys for you (they own the BTC not you) and you just have an IOU that you will get them if/when you ask for it.

From what I've read it's not very advisable to store you BTC with any exchange. The preferred method for control/safety if you're playing with large quantity is a hardware wallet like Trezor.

Situations like Mt. Gox explain why people don't use exchanges as wallet. Even Coinbase's CEO advises against it. At the end of the day it's better to just use a wallet, either hardware or software, and make sure you have control of your BTC if shit hits the fan.

My reference is always NCAA football; the intricacies of the NFL escape me.

Home field advantage is directly tied to officiating. Someone recently referenced the book Scorecasting in this sub and it can't be recommended enough to learn more about how to think creatively about sports matchups.

Officiating crews, in my opinion, are a large part of how a bettor may be able to uncover some value. Leagues have been moving in recent years to consolidate conference crews regionally, and any resources one can dig up on which crews are at what games can only help when it comes to betting.

I'm a fan of Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong, which had some good info in it. It's getting to be pretty out of date though, as the most recent up date he published was in 2009.

http://www.amazon.ca/Sharp-Sports-Betting-Stanford-Wong/dp/0935926240

This is a book and not a website, but it's hands down the greatest sports betting book ever written. [Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong] (http://www.amazon.com/Sharp-Sports-Betting-Stanford-Wong/dp/0935926240)

I really like The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas. He talks about how beliefs tend to filter reality, and how you can manage those beliefs. It's not so much about winning, as it helps to keep perspective and lose less. [Here] (https://www.amazon.com/Disciplined-Trader-Developing-Winning-Attitudes/dp/0132157578)

to add on to this he mentions a book called Picking Winners by Andrew Beyer, a horse racing handicapper. The book is a really in-depth look at his whole methodology for evaluating horse races and you definitely don't need to read the whole thing if that stuff doesn't interest you but as Joe Peta says in his recommendation - there is a chapter in the book on Money Management that is FANTASTIC and borderline essential for anyone trading risk

MLB resources, good luck with your prep

www.baseballreference.com

www.dailybaseballdata.com

www.fangraphs.com

www.xstats.org

www.fantasylabs.com (daily lineup projections)

www.sbrodds.com (historical lines)

www.amazon.com/Book-Playing-Percentages-Baseball/dp/1494260174

www.twitter.com/TheHandicaper/lists/mlb-beat-writers/members

OK so my first really interesting read has been Mathletics by Wayne Winston and Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver.


What I have learnt so far is that it really comes down to knowing your statistics, knowing how to apply them and building a spreadsheet from there, identifying patterns along the way.

I loved these two horse-betting books:

https://www.amazon.com/Horseplayers-Life-Track-Ted-McClelland/dp/155652675X/ref=sr_1_36?ie=UTF8&qid=1541892366&sr=8-36&keywords=horse+racing+books

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https://www.amazon.com/Laughing-Hills-Bill-Barich/dp/1932910875/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1541892316&sr=8-2&keywords=laughing+in+the+hills

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Pretty much any book that joseph buchdal has written

I recommend this as a first book

https://www.amazon.co.uk/How-Find-Black-Coal-Cellar/dp/1843440679/ref=la_B00J2FMFOI_1_3?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1550934118&sr=1-3

> Here’s a general rule: If you’re picking the favorite take the ML, if you’re picking the underdog take the spread.

Be careful with this; there is no such rule. You might be inclined to pick up a book or two about basic sports betting principles if you really are serious about deep-diving into it. There are, predictably, more bad ones than good ones. I think "Sharper" is a good enough starting point and well-received.

https://www.amazon.com/Sharper-Guide-Modern-Sports-Betting-ebook/dp/B01K5SDAKS

It is free on Kindle Unlimited. It is not perfect and there are others, but it will get you started.

what you are describing is not a model. you are simply picking games using factors (some of which are not predictive in any way) in an unweighted manner. it's not possible to quantity your edge anyway using that method, counteracting the entire point of what modeling is for.


edit: this isn't really a constructive comment so let me offer something. start by reading the book if modeling baseball is something you are serious about.